Monday, September 7, 2009

NRL Finals Preview

Dragons (1) v Eels (8):
The most obvious question is will Wendell's head fit into the stadium? The Dell is getting more media coverage than Paris Hilton at an adult film festival and it will be interesting to see if he can handle the pressure as the Dragons look to get rid of the choker tag.

Under Nathan Brown, the Dragons arguably had some of the best players the NRL has seen in the past decade but just couldn't put it together when it mattered. Maybe he was taking his coaching tips from Greg Norman, but with Wayne Bennett in control if they cant win the competition the psychological damage may be irreparable and the Dragons faithful may be waiting some time before future finals chances come a'knockin.

Now back to the actual game, the Eels will be struggling to turn around from last weeks dismal shellacking against the Dragons. Of course they will get some inspiration from Jarryd Hayne having won the Dally M medal earlier in the week and undoubtedly his actual form during the game. Similarly, they didn't win 7 in a row by being a dud team, but can they actually turn it around?! No really, can they?!

The Dragons on the other hand have it all to lose. They are the heavy favourites after a dominant season (albeit a few minor hiccups towards the end end of the season). They also have history in their corner as well with only one 8th placed team beating the minor premiers under the NRL McIntyre finals system (Warriors beat the Storm in 2008).
Tip: Dragons by 8

Bulldogs (2) v Knights (7):
Kevin Moore might have dropped the coach of the year trophy at the Dally M awards earlier in the week, but he is unlikely to be caught on the hop against the Knights this weekend.

He was a well deserved recipient of the award having almost done the impossible of turning the Bulldogs from wooden spooners into minor premiers in one season. It was only a special Benji Marshall and a relaxed West Tigers who prevented the dream turn around.

The Bulldogs will again struggle this weekend without Brett Kimmorley, but they had better learn to live without him fast as, barring divine intervention, he will not be back for the entirety of the finals. The Bulldogs will play tight and solid (as evidenced by their 5 award recipients at the Dally M awards), but whether they have that little bit of creativity will depend on the halves and whether they can shut down Mullen.

The Knights have snuck under the raider into the finals with most attention being on their opponents and the Dragons but with steady heads in Gidley, MacDougall, and Mullen, not to mention the bookends of those three with their creativity. It will be very interesting to see the result and despite the the praise heaped on the Bulldogs above, there is a whiff of a boilover...
Tip: Knights by 2

Titans (3) v Broncos (6):
Did someone say derby? Did someone say sibling rivalry? Did someone say epic clash that most of Queensland will be besotted with?

It is the first time the Titans have been in the finals and they have proved that the are worthy title contenders.....if only the final was played on the Gold Coast. The Titans are supremely dominant at home but represent a wet dead fish away from home. Having said that, they have played good football home and away over the past 5 weeks (except for a minor blip last weekend).

The Broncos are storming into the finals like Casta Semnya on the final straight of the women's 800m world championship final. They have played some very attractive but also sensible league and teams that underestimate them will do so at their peril. The Broncos also have a fantastic mix of youth and experience (players with a combined total of 300 plus finals games) and should they be in a position to win the game against the Titans, the old heads should prevail and see the Broncos survive the first round.
Tip: Broncos by 7

Storm (4) v Sea Eagles (5):
In what is fast turning into a rivalry to match some of the greats (see Bulldogs v Eels, Manchester United v Liverpool, Collingwood v Essenden, England v Australia) these two teams play a grand final rematch in round one of the finals!

After 6 rounds of this season, hardly anyone gave the Sea Eagles any chance of making the finals let alone almost getting a home final. Similarly, most punters and pundits would have placed the Storm in their top two teams come season's end.

Watmough has been a revelation this season and has stepped up in the absence of Brett Stewart. Orford has also been fantastic as he has not been able to rely on Stewart getting onto the end of of his passes and kicks not to mention directing the team around like a cattle dog.

The Storm, on the other hand have had an indifferent season and looks like its been one of transition. They have not been helped by the late off season dramas with Inglis and the large number rep players during the middle of the season, but with Inglis back and firing on all cylinders, the Storm look like peaking at the right time. Finch was a great pick up during the season and he has done well with Cronk and the Storm at home will be tough to beat. These two teams will undoubtedly put on a spectacle, so tune in for fireworks.
Tip: Storm by 10

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